The first half of 2026 ends next week with the indexes near record highs and a consensus that is more comfortable than the data underneath it. JPMorgan closed the week by lifting its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,800 from 7,200, framing roughly another five percent of upside as a “Blue Sky” case. The bullishness is not built on earnings revisions or falling rates. It is built on the disappearance of a tail risk: a U.